New Climate Pledges Show Minimal Impact on Warming Projections
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, revealing that global temperature projections for this century have decreased only slightly. Based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the expected rise is now between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, compared to 2.6°C to 2.8°C in the previous report.
According to UNEP's findings, if countries adhere only to their current policies, global warming could reach up to 2.8°C, down from 3.1°C projected last year. The assessment underscores that despite new pledges, the world remains on track for dangerous levels of climate change.
The report notes that methodological revisions explain about 0.1°C of the apparent progress. The expected withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will negate another 0.1°C, indicating that the new NDCs have delivered minimal actual impact.
Far from Reaching Paris Agreement Targets
Nations continue to fall short of the Paris Agreement objective to keep global warming well below 2°C, aiming to remain under 1.5°C. The report states that the multi-decadal global temperature average will likely exceed 1.5°C temporarily, a situation that will be very challenging to reverse.
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5°C will be difficult to reverse and could intensify damage to lives, ecosystems, and economies.”
UNEP emphasizes that avoiding such overshoot will require rapid and substantial emission reductions, lessening the need to rely on uncertain carbon dioxide removal technologies and minimizing long-term climate risks.
Key Findings
- Projected warming with full NDC implementation: 2.3–2.5°C.
- Projected warming with current policies: up to 2.8°C.
- Global average temperature will surpass 1.5°C temporarily.
- Additional emission cuts are essential to limit overshoot and damage.
Author’s Summary: UNEP’s 2025 report warns that despite new pledges, global warming remains dangerously high, requiring faster action to meet the Paris climate goals.