Is AI Really Coming for Our Jobs and Wages?
Stories about automation destroying jobs and reducing wages used to be widespread. However, a thorough analysis of its real effects reveals a less alarming reality.
Historical Fears of Automation
Over a decade ago, concerns about robots taking over human jobs were common. Today, similar warnings surround the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI). Breakthroughs in technology, especially generative AI platforms like ChatGPT, have reignited fears that automation will eradicate many types of work.
These fears often appear in news articles highlighting new worker surveys or online discussions describing AI-driven "job massacres." Past studies on automation also shared this pessimistic outlook, predicting a looming "robot apocalypse."
Key Research and Media Response
- In 2013, Oxford researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne estimated that 47% of US jobs faced a high risk of automation within one or two decades.
- The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research soon predicted about 50% of jobs in New Zealand could be vulnerable.
- The media echoed these warnings with dramatic headlines like
“You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot – and Sooner Than You Think”.
- In 2017, Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo offered evidence that robots were already displacing jobs and causing wage declines in the US economy.
“The robots were taking our jobs – or so we were told over a decade ago.”
Despite these concerns, the actual impact of automation on employment and wages remains complex and often less severe than initially feared.
Author's Summary
The fear that AI will obliterate jobs has deep roots, but real-world evidence suggests automation’s effects on employment and wages are more nuanced than alarmist narratives imply.